FXUS64 KCRP 040745 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 145 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 118 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 The synoptic pattern for the next few days will feature a low to the northeast and another one west with the southern Plains under a low amplitude ridge. A quasi-zonal flow across South Texas will keep our CWA under generally persistant conditions. A weak lower level disturbance and a warm front that's in the vicininty will keep rain chances in the forecast for now. A low to moderate 30-60% chance of showers lingers through this evening mainly east. Chances continue to diminish after that with better chances remaining offshore. Afternoon temperatures today will top out in the mid 70s across the region and around the low 70s for tomorrow under mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows tonight can be expected to bottom out in the mid 50s to 60s near the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 118 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 Key Message: - Low to medium chances of rain will continue through early next week. Our unsettled patten will continue through the long term, beginning with a low to medium (30-60%) chance of rain through Sunday night. As the previous forecast package mentioned, it looks like we may actually get a half an inch of rain over the Brush Country and higher amounts over the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend, with guidance indicating around 1.5 inches, from Thursday night through Sunday night. While models seem to be grabbing on to these values, it is still very questionable. Confidence is low in such high rain totals. Temperatures will stay in the 60s and 70s through the weekend, gradually warming into the upper 70s and low 80s Monday. Another, mostly dry, cold front looks like it will surge south through the area Tuesday, dropping high temperatures back into the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Scattered to numerous showers can be expected through the remainder the overnight hours, and into Wednesday morning. There's not a lot of instability to work with, but cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two. MVFR CIGs are currently in place across most sites and are expected to prevail through much of the TAF period, but brief IFR CIGs and VSBYs cannot be ruled out within heavier showers and storms. Precipitation is expected to end from west to east late Wednesday morning as a warm front is progged to move northward along the TX coast Wednesday. Following the frontal passage, CIGs will be slow to lift but should reach VFR by late afternoon/early evening across most sites. Winds will generally remain light and variable. && .MARINE... Issued at 118 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 Onshore flow tonight is expected to remain moderate to strong tonight through the morning hours before weakening to weak to moderate levels by this afternoon, falling below advisory levels. However, seas will take longer to subside and may stay at advisory levels through Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight through at least Thursday with a 50-80% chance. Winds will shift to the northeast Thursday and increase to moderate strength. Moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds will continue through Friday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Winds will weaken Friday night and turn onshore Saturday. Medium to high (50-80%) chances of showers will continue through Sunday night, then diminish to low to medium (20-50%) chances early next week. Another cold front will sweep across the waters early next week, with moderate to strong northerly winds in its wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 63 73 55 / 10 10 20 30 Victoria 77 57 71 46 / 60 20 10 10 Laredo 73 56 71 53 / 0 0 20 70 Alice 76 60 74 53 / 10 10 10 40 Rockport 75 61 71 53 / 40 20 20 30 Cotulla 73 58 70 52 / 10 0 10 40 Kingsville 76 62 74 55 / 10 10 20 40 Navy Corpus 74 65 71 61 / 30 20 30 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for GMZ270-275. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....LS/77 AVIATION...KRS/98