FXUS64 KEPZ 040601 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1101 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1050 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures through Saturday. - Unsettled weather makes its return Thursday with isolated to scattered rain showers into Saturday...snow levels will lower to around 7500 feet by late Friday. - Possibly the coldest air of the season moving in for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1235 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 Models in general agreement with general pattern but differ a little on details, in particular with placement and timing of upper low cutting off around northern Baja. The upper low already exists in a broad form near Yuma but will become more developed over the next day or two. We have already switched winds around to the east to southeast across the area which has brought in some low level moisture and low clouds. Expect the low level moisture to remain around but the clouds to gradually dissipate tomorrow. Moisture not deep enough to really get any showers going until late tomorrow and moreso into Thu-Sat. As the low slowly shifts eastward, a deformation zone develops around southern NM and we will start to see on and off again showers. Do not see more than scattered coverage and rainfall amounts under a tenth of an inch for most areas. A few thunderstorms are possible as well which could bring localized higher amounts. Snow levels start out above 9000ft but as we get into later Thu into Fri, they will start to fall to around 7500-8000ft. Temperatures will be warming slightly tomorrow, but another push of colder air arrives for Thu. The NBM seems a little aggressive with cold air after looking at ensemble means of the GFS and EC. The upper low starts to lift out Sat with the last of the precip occurring then. Temperatures remain near to slightly below normal Saturday. As the low moves east, another trough is already digging into the Great Basin which will shift winds around to the west. Looks like some breezy to windy days for Mon and Tue as this system approaches. Temperatures will be warming back above normal and NBM temps look at least 3-5 degrees too cool as the west winds and mostly sunny skies allow for good warming and both EC/GFS along with their ensembles, should get into the mid 60s to possibly lower 70s in the RGV. Trough moves into the area by the last period on Tue and this looks to be the coldest air of the season. If winds lighten up enough, KELP could see the first official freeze of the season and high temperatures Tue may not get out of the 40s. Good support among all models/ensembles so lowered NBM temps here. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 Light northeast to easterly winds through the TAF period with some low clouds (FEW030) expected to pop up overnight tonight. High clouds will continue to stream over a portion of the area but much of the high clouds will clear out by sunrise. Low clouds/fog possible in the late overnight hours tonight and early in the morning, but confidence remains low if fog will materialize. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1235 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 The period starts out with near normal temperatures with off and on precipitation chances starting in the mountains late Wednesday and continuing areawide Thu-Sat. RH's will remain above 25% through Saturday before warmer and drier air returns for Sun. Winds will remain under 20 mph during this period but could start becoming windy early next week. Expect vent rates to be poor to good the next couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 46 66 46 59 / 0 0 10 30 Sierra Blanca 45 65 40 55 / 0 0 10 20 Las Cruces 42 64 41 58 / 0 10 10 30 Alamogordo 40 66 36 60 / 0 10 0 40 Cloudcroft 31 48 25 38 / 0 10 10 40 Truth or Consequences 39 62 36 57 / 0 10 0 30 Silver City 41 59 36 57 / 10 10 10 50 Deming 39 66 38 60 / 10 10 10 30 Lordsburg 39 67 33 61 / 0 10 0 30 West El Paso Metro 46 66 46 59 / 0 10 10 30 Dell City 43 69 39 54 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Hancock 44 71 39 61 / 0 0 10 20 Loma Linda 44 63 41 52 / 0 0 10 40 Fabens 44 68 44 60 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Teresa 43 64 43 59 / 10 10 10 30 White Sands HQ 45 65 43 56 / 10 10 10 40 Jornada Range 39 65 40 57 / 10 10 10 40 Hatch 41 68 36 62 / 10 10 10 30 Columbus 43 66 39 60 / 10 10 10 30 Orogrande 42 65 38 58 / 0 10 10 40 Mayhill 33 57 30 45 / 0 10 0 30 Mescalero 34 57 28 48 / 10 10 10 40 Timberon 31 58 28 47 / 0 10 0 40 Winston 27 59 26 53 / 0 10 0 30 Hillsboro 38 64 35 58 / 10 10 0 40 Spaceport 37 65 34 59 / 10 10 10 30 Lake Roberts 33 60 25 58 / 10 10 10 50 Hurley 36 61 33 57 / 10 10 10 40 Cliff 32 63 26 61 / 10 10 10 50 Mule Creek 34 62 27 58 / 10 10 10 40 Faywood 37 62 37 56 / 10 10 10 40 Animas 38 67 33 61 / 0 0 0 20 Hachita 34 67 34 59 / 0 10 0 20 Antelope Wells 38 66 34 60 / 10 0 0 20 Cloverdale 39 65 38 57 / 10 0 0 20 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher