FXUS64 KEWX 040819 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 219 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 144 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 A coastal low roughly near CRP early this morning has an associated shear axis that runs up I-37 to San Antonio and northward into the eastern Hill Country. This corridor is where shower activity will be most concentrated through 4 AM, but the axis shifts east of the I-35 Corridor by late morning. Rainfall amount projections from most model data has been consistently light with most areas expected to get less than 0.15 inches. Temperatures will become milder over most areas, as dew points from SE and E winds increase with the light falling rain. An exception for today is near and north of Austin where NE surface winds have maintained lower dewpoints which will interact with the light rain with evaporative cooling effects. The coastal low and weak mid level shortwave pulls to the east tonight to leave a mostly stable picture for tonight into Thursday. The still damp air and mostly cloudy skies should make for mild morning lows, even over the northern counties that eventually see the higher dew points return. Daytime temperatures will be mostly flat for Thursday, since another cold front will slip into the area gradually. This will solidify the shallow overrunning pattern, but not enough to generate any meaningful rainfall in the short term period. Deeper moisture will begin pooling up along the Rio Grande again, which should bode well for increasing rain chances just outside the short term. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 144 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024 Precipitation chances increase Thursday night and stick around through the weekend as a cut-off upper low remains west of South Central Texas centered in the vicinity of northern Mexico and the far southwestern US. Ahead of this feature, increasing low to mid level moisture and a series of weak shortwaves will lead to periods of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Generally rainfall looks to be light or moderate through the period, but some isolated heavy rainfall will be possible. Ensemble guidance gives the best probabilities for more significant 24 hour rainfall (>0.25 inches) Saturday into Sunday. This closed low lifts northeast into the Central Plains Sunday with rain chances and overcast skies dissipating from west to east through Sunday night. Monday through the middle of next week will be primarily dry with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. For temperatures, highs Friday and Saturday will be some of the coldest we have seen this season. Highs range from the upper 40s to low 60s with a warm up Sunday and Monday. Another front is forecast to move across the area sometime on Tuesday, most likely earlier in the morning. Northerly wind will bring cooler air and cold overnight lows in the wake of the front. Will need to watch for overnight freezing temperatures for some of our northern areas early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 936 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 CIGs lowering to MVFR this evening will lower to IFR, possibly LIFR with restrictions to VSBY overnight into morning as SHRA increase moistening the lower levels. After the SHRA move off to the east, CIGs/VSBYs will rise to MVFR at the I-35 sites and VFR at KDRT Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be light at 7 KTs or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 65 54 64 43 / 70 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 54 65 43 / 70 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 56 68 45 / 60 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 63 50 62 40 / 60 10 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 53 69 52 / 0 0 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 52 63 41 / 70 10 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 70 54 66 47 / 20 10 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 67 55 65 44 / 70 10 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 55 66 44 / 70 20 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 56 66 47 / 40 10 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 71 58 67 49 / 40 10 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...18 Long-Term...27 Aviation...04