FXUS64 KHGX 111739 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1139 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Surface high pressure over the Rio Grande will drift eastward into the area late in the day and evening then continue off to the east tonight. Mostly clear skies and light winds should allow temps in the 30s this morning to rebound into the low 60s this afternoon. Temps will then cool back into the 30s overnight. Onshore winds will resume Thursday and gradually increase in speed as lee side pressures fall. Sunny skies Thursday morning will transition to mostly cloudy to cloudy from south-to-north in the late afternoon and evening hours. Thursday night, low level Gulf moisture will continue flowing inland and PW's should climb into the 1.1-1.4" range as some shortwaves embedded in the wsw flow aloft make their way toward region. Wouldn't be surprised to see some pockets of light rain, drizzle and some iso/sct showers to emerge across portions of the area before sunrise Friday. 47 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 An upper level trough is expected to dig through Rockies/Central Plains on Friday. The pressure gradient briefly tightens up as this disturbance passes to the north, invigorating WAA and moisture advection. Warming temperatures and rising rain chances can be expected for the end of the work week with highs on Friday reaching the mid 60s/mid 70s. With this deeper Gulf moisture filling back in over the recently cooled shelf water, sea fog may develop over the coastline, bays and nearshore waters. The Matagorda bay area could see sea fog return during the early morning hours of Friday. The threat of sea fog should expand to encompass the rest of the bays/coastline Friday evening/early Saturday morning. On Saturday, the upper level trough should fill NE through the Upper MS River Valley. This feature will push a weak cold front into the vicinity on Saturday. LREF ensemble members and long range deterministic models favor keeping this boundary north of our area, seen in a upward trend in LREF dewpoints when compared to previous runs. This would allow for the sea fog threat to continue daily during the nighttime hours, though a brief shift to E/NE flow Saturday evening may disrupt it. Uncertainty still remains as to where the front will exactly stall out. Regardless, this boundary should lift north on Sunday, keeping warm and humid conditions in place into early next week. On Monday another upper level trough should sweep across the North/Central Plains, draping another cold front across SE Texas Monday evening/early Tuesday. Cooler and drier conditions develop in the wake of this front, though model & ensemble guidance is uncertain as to the front's strength. Some guidance shows the front stalling and quickly lifting north as early as Tuesday evening, while others keep offshore flow in place for several days following. 03 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Light northwest winds and clear skies will prevail across all sites through most of the period. Surface high pressure will move to our east tonight, shifting winds to the SE by Wednesday. VFR conditions are expected through the period. JM && .MARINE... Issued at 339 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Gale Warnings and Low Water Advisories should come to an end this morning as northerly winds decrease. Small Craft Advisories take effect thereafter through the early afternoon to allow for conditions to improve. Onshore flow returns by Thursday morning, strengthening to caution levels that evening. Rain chances return late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Patchy sea fog may return early Friday morning to areas around Matagorda bay, though stronger winds should prevent fog from becoming thick. The threat of sea fog expands to the rest of the bays/nearshore waters Friday evening, becoming more likely during the early morning hours of Saturday as winds decrease. Winds shift easterly Saturday evening, then southeasterly again heading into next week. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 34 65 55 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 62 38 66 54 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 60 49 64 60 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ350-355. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ370- 375. && $$ SHORT TERM...47 LONG TERM....03 AVIATION...JM MARINE...03