FXUS64 KLCH 040513 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 347 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Afternoon temperatures will remain below average, with highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s across the CWA. A notable pattern shift is anticipated beginning tonight into tomorrow. A surface high pressure over the MRV will migrate southward to the deep SE States, while a trough and associated warm front near the Texas coast advance northward. By early tomorrow morning, showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over SETX, with precip coverage intensifying throughout the day. While the potential for severe weather and excessive rainfall appears low at this time, isolated strong storms and localized street flooding from heavy downpours cannot be entirely ruled out. PoPs will lower by tomorrow evening however, this will not spell the end of rain for the area. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Thursday morning through the evening hours as the warm front lifts north into the CWA ahead of another cold front expected to sink south. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 347 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 The long range portion of the forecast begins Friday with a brief shot of dry, chilly weather courtesy of Canadian high pressure moving east of the forecast area...with highs over portions of cntl LA/interior sern TX currently forecast to not even get out of the 40s during the day. Meanwhile, a mid/upper-level cutoff low over the Four Corners is progged to dig slowly swd, turning the flow aloft a little more onshore, allowing for moisture to begin increasing as we head into the weekend. Finally, a developing coastal trof could lead to widely scattered showers, mainly over our wrn-most zones, by late Friday night. At this time, temps are progged to remain above freezing where POPs are being carried...for now, it appears all precip will be liquid, with the area having any real potential for possible winter weather being e-cntl LA where rain chances are really really slim at best. The bulk of the remainder of the long term just looks gross. Increasing moisture off the Gulf from the cutoff low aloft (forecast soundings show mean RH values increasing to around 90 pcnt while PWAT values build to 1.9 inches) will combine with the trof and a series of impulses aloft to lead to a period of elevated rain chances beginning Saturday. Rain chances peak Sunday as the low opens up and ejects ewd across the forecast area. WPC is currently carrying the wrn 1/2 of the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday into early Sunday. All the precip finally ends Monday as a cold front sweeps across the area. 25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Mostly VFR conditions are anticipated through sunrise with showers and MVFR ceilings becoming likely through Wednesday afternoon. Light and east winds will become SE in the morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 347 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 A small Craft Advisory was issued for the outer marine zones due to slightly elevated winds. Winds will drive a favorable NE'ly fetch to build seas over 6ft for southern portions of the 20-60nm offshore zones, particularly south of Sabine Pass. Rain chances will be elevated from the middle of the week onward as a low pressure center moves up the Texas coastline and a warm front moves north through the GoM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 35 61 50 58 / 0 80 100 20 LCH 45 69 58 64 / 0 70 90 40 LFT 44 69 58 64 / 0 50 90 50 BPT 51 72 58 66 / 20 80 90 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...05