FXUS64 KLUB 040427 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1027 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. - Cooler weather returns Thursday behind the front and then lingering into Friday when some light rain showers will be possible across southern areas. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 An upper blocking pattern remains situated over the western CONUS and will persist through the short-term, during which time the FA will continue to remain on the northern end of an upper ridge. Low stratus has cleared across most of the FA by the late morning, but additional cloud cover looks to be on the way. Stratus currently over the Permian Basin continues to push northward and is moving into our southern zones as of 1 PM. This cloud cover should continue to spread across much of the FA this evening into tonight and will result in rather mild overnight temps with morning lows ranging from the upper 30s across our western zones to upper 40s across our southeastern zones. An upper low that will move over the Great Lakes by tomorrow afternoon will push a weak front southward into the region by by the early afternoon. The front will be more of a wind shift than an actual front as temps will be highly modified with afternoon highs to likely be warmer tomorrow than what is expected today. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 134 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Short wave upper level ridging over the forecast area downstream from a blocking pattern over the intermountain West will keep conditions relatively quiet through Thursday while a post-frontal cool air mass and an upslope component will keep high temperatures in particularly a bit below normal Thursday. As the ridge shifts slowly eastward as early as Thursday evening increasing mid level isentropic lift, increasing difluence aloft ahead of an ejecting low over Arizona, and a 100+ kt jet streak at 250 mb oriented east to west across the southern half of Texas all point to increasing cloud cover and blossoming rain showers, mainly to the south of the forecast area on Friday, but possibly pushing northward into the southern 1/4 to 1/3 of the forecast area in line with previous forecasts. The parent upper low is progged to fill and move to the southeastward into far northern Mexico before the remnant trough moves across the southern High Plains toward Sunday night/Monday. This will shift rain chances eastward as well and likely out of the forecast area on Saturday. Temperatures should begin to warm Saturday with decreasing cloud cover and a return to southerly surface flow with a further increase on Sunday as southwesterly surface and low level flow increases with the approach of the narrow upper trough. Timing of the next cold front Monday/Monday night will be key to Monday's high temperatures as a broad trough begins to be carved out over the CONUS with energy pushing eastward across the northern Plains and southeastward across Utah and Colorado. The latter piece may have a chance of bringing some light snow showers Tuesday morning across the far southwestern Panhandle near the state line before its energy peters out. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Lower VFR CIGs will continue through this evening before lifting into Wednesday. Light southerly winds will switch to northerly by Wednesday afternoon. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...19