FXUS64 KLZK 040519 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1119 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 A strong upper level system will be digging down over southern CA and settling into the swrn US, while downstream over Arkansas the upper pattern will remain quasi-static, with a W-NW flow aloft. At the surface, a high pressure system will slide to the east, bringing a southerly return flow to the region tonight into tomorrow. This will allow temperatures to rebound a bit tomorrow, with highs topping out in the 50's and 60's. However, it will not last, as another cold front will be dropping down from the NW. The front will start to push into NW Arkansas by early tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of the front, moisture and lift over southern AR will result in chances for showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. Cooler air will be in place behind the front, and highs on Thursday will be topping out in the 30's across the north , with highs near 50 across the far south. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 The period will begin with a northwest flow aloft right out of Canada. Cold high pressure will follow the flow into Arkansas from the Plains Thursday night/Friday, with below average temperatures to begin the extended period. Heading into the weekend, the Subtropical Jet will become more dominant as a large storm system/cutoff low approaches the region from the southwest United States. Temperatures will moderate quickly ahead of the system, and chances of rain will increase. Areas of heavy rain will be possible along the Gulf Coast, but some of this heavier precipitation may build into southern Arkansas. For now, the forecast calls for two to four inches of rain across the southern counties through Monday. Late in the period, the storm system will exit to the east by Tuesday, with a cold front blasting through the area from the northwest. Behind the front, temperatures will quickly return to seasonal/below seasonal levels. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours increasing and lowering clouds ahead of the next system to impact portions of the state beginning 04/12Z. A weak disturbance will bring some rain showers to central and southern terminals. MVFR/IFR conditions are likely where SHRA move through. Winds will be out of the west and could be gusty at times. Additionally, some LLWS will be possible across northern terminals Wednesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 30 56 30 40 / 0 10 0 0 Camden AR 29 52 37 50 / 0 70 60 0 Harrison AR 33 59 26 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 31 51 36 48 / 0 40 20 0 Little Rock AR 31 53 36 46 / 0 30 20 0 Monticello AR 31 53 40 48 / 0 70 70 0 Mount Ida AR 31 54 34 50 / 0 40 10 0 Mountain Home AR 31 60 27 36 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 30 54 31 39 / 0 10 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 29 53 37 46 / 0 50 50 0 Russellville AR 30 58 32 46 / 0 10 0 0 Searcy AR 28 54 32 42 / 0 10 0 0 Stuttgart AR 31 52 36 43 / 0 30 30 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...73