FXUS64 KMAF 040514 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1114 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 - Slightly warmer temperatures return Wednesday, followed by cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday behind another cold front passing through on Wednesday night. - Increased chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday morning with the cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Issued at 253 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 An upper level ridge of high pressure extends across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico this afternoon while a surface trough of low pressure extends over eastern New Mexico. A moist southeasterly to southerly low level flow pattern has kept low level cloud decks in place over much of our region this afternoon. Weak isentropic ascent has even allowed for a few sprinkles/very light rain to develop over portions of the Permian Basin, although nothing more than a trace of precipitation has been noted. Weak upper level ridging will generally remain in place over our forecast area through Wednesday night, while an upper level low gradually deepens across the Desert Southwest. A cold front will push into eastern New Mexico and the Texas panhandle on Wednesday before moving through most of our forecast area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. An overall lack of meaningful moisture and ascent will support keeping a dry forecast intact across our region through Wednesday night. Moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere will keep skies mostly cloudy to overcast at times with decks of low level cloud cover remaining in place through tonight. We do expect a gradual decrease in cloud cover during the day Wednesday as low level winds veer more westerly to northwesterly ahead of the approaching front. Lows tonight will generally range in the upper 30s to mid 40s across the region, with highs on Wednesday warming back into the mid 60s to near 70 degrees over most areas (except mid 70s to near 80 along the Rio Grande). Lows Wednesday night trend slightly cooler in the 30s over northern portions of the area behind the passing cold front, but otherwise generally ranging in the 40s across the remainder of our region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 253 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 A slow moving upper-level trough currently positioned over the Desert Southwest will play a key role in our weather within the long term. This helps bring some rain chances back into the forecast and keeps southwesterly flow over our area through Sunday, before it gets replaced by another trough some time early next week. The exact details on this second storm system remain uncertain at this time, but there exists potential for it to usher in an even colder air mass than the frontal system expected later this week. Wednesday night's cold front will have swept through most of the area by Thursday morning, leaving temperatures in the 30s and 40s to start the day. Afternoon highs will be in the 50s, with 60s near the border. Moisture within the southwesterly flow and increased ascent from both the upper-level trough and the cold front lead to slight (15%-30%) rain chances for those in Southeastern New Mexico, the mountains, and in the Upper Trans Pecos on Thursday. Rain chances begin to spread across region overnight Thursday, increasing to 20%-40% for almost everyone by Friday. Additional rain chances arrive Saturday morning with 10%-30% PoPs spread south of I- 20. At the moment, rainfall totals look scant (< 0.1"). Early morning lows ranging in the 30s to mid 40s last through Monday. Friday will be our coldest day in the period as cold air advection continues and highs top out in the upper 40s to low 50s. Highs warm into the 50s Saturday, then 60s and 70s return Sunday and Monday ahead of our next storm system. More details to come on the next system in the future... -Lopez && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Southeasterly winds shift to southwesterly by 13Z-16Z all terminals other than INK and PEQ, and then northerly/northeasterly by 21Z-00Z with cold front passage. Winds at both INK and PEQ remain lighter and more variable than surrounding terminals throughout period. Winds shift to easterly after 01Z-02Z at MAF and FST. VFR VIS everywhere, any MVFR CIGs remaining east of MAF and FST through 18Z. Decreasing high clouds over terminals after 18Z Wednesday into end of period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 60 45 67 40 / 10 0 0 0 Carlsbad 58 40 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 60 44 70 48 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 61 43 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 53 43 61 41 / 10 0 0 0 Hobbs 56 39 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 58 40 69 42 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 58 43 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 58 44 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 60 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....95 AVIATION...94