FXUS64 KMOB 040512 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1112 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Northeasterly winds will slowly shift to the south by the afternoon hours, ahead of an approaching cold front. This front won't bring any impacts during this forecast period, but we will see an increase in rain chances towards the end of the period. /73 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 337 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 We start the near term under a deep layer, dry northwesterly flow with broad upper trough axis positioned from the northeast CONUS, down into the southeast. Precipitable waters (PWAT's) are way down below 0.40" over the deep south. At the surface, a strong 1038mb ridge of high pressure was centered over the mid MS River Valley and will ease eastward to across the Appalachians tonight. The high sinks southward across the Florida Peninsula Wednesday where it weakens and flattens as next upstream front approaches the lower MS River Valley. Expect rain-free conditions tonight and Wednesday. As the front approaches, winds shift more southerly which will cause Gulf moisture to gradually return. As the front moves southeast into the local area Wednesday night, frontal ascent operates on a zone of improved deep layer moisture by then when PWAT's trend upwards to 1.4 to 1.6". Several weak shortwaves are expected to also rotate around the base of next upper trough swinging through beginning Wednesday night. All of these players support an increase in rain chances from west to east Wednesday night, with the better chances after midnight. Considering little in the way of instability to support convection, appears the main weather type will be showers. Still cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder Wednesday night though. Clear skies and calm winds will continue into the overnight hours supporting an excellent radiational cooling channel and lows plummeting into the upper 20s to lower 30s once again tonight north of I-10 and deep into the interior. 35 to 40 closer to the coast. Daytime highs begin to moderate Wednesday mostly into the lower to mid 60s. The southerly flow off the Gulf, approach of front and increased cloud cover Wednesday night keeps lows in check, mid 40s interior to lower to mid 50s coast. /10 SHORT THROUGh LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 337 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Thursday into Thursday night, shortwave energy passing over the Southeast moves off, with a post frontal cold front moving south over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday night. Rain showers are expected to end Thursday night, well before near-freezing temperatures approach the forecast area. There continues to be differences amongst the guidance with the cold push behind the front. The GFS continues to be the weakest with the push, ECMWF the strongest. This leads to significant differences in temperatures beginning Thursday night into Saturday night. More on this in the next paragraph. More shortwave energy ejecting from an upper low moves east to over the Plains Sunday, with the opening upper system moving over the Southeast Monday night into Tuesday. Another upper level shortwave trough will move over the Plains Tuesday, with guidance varying on its eastward speed. More rain showers along with embedded thunderstorms will overspread the the forecast area. Guidance is advertising higher rainfall totals in the coming week, especially Monday as the main shortwave trough passes. With precipitable h20 values rising into the 1.5"-1.7" range, training cells may cause issues in poor drainage areas. Will need to monitor for water issues in the coming week, though drought conditions across the forecast area will help to temper these issues. Looking at temperatures, have continued with a blended approach. The latest ECMWF ensembles are advertising that the OP ECMWF continues to be too cool, but not as warm as the GFS. High temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north of Highway 84 to upper 60s south of I-10 to the coast are expected Thursday. These drop into the upper 40s north of Highway 84 to upper 50s south of I-10 on Friday. From there, temperatures moderate upwards through the weekend as southerly flow returns to the Southeast, with 70s returning forecast area wide for Monday. Low temperatures well below seasonal norms, with upper 20s to low 30s along and north of Highway 84 to mid to upper 30s south of I-10 are expected Thursday and Friday nights. From there, low temperatures rise, to the mid 50s well inland to low 60s south of I-10 Sunday and Monday nights. Northerly flow will shift to offshore flow temporarily mid week. From there, onshore flow returns by the the end of the weekend. Increasing swell on area beaches will bring a moderate to high risk of rip currents for Sunday into the coming week. /16 MARINE... Issued at 337 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 No marine hazards anticipated through Wednesday. A cold front approaches the deep south Wednesday night, making passage across the coastal waters Thursday afternoon. Offshore flow increases and seas will gradually build in the wake of the front. Moderate to strong north to northeast flow sets up Thursday night, gradually lowering through the day Friday continuing into the weekend. The highest seas look to occur Thursday night at 3 to perhaps 6 feet in range beyond 20 nautical miles out due to the northeasterly fetch. Small craft advisories may become required. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 33 65 52 65 32 53 34 61 / 0 0 60 80 10 0 0 10 Pensacola 39 63 56 67 34 55 38 62 / 0 0 40 70 20 0 0 0 Destin 41 65 56 70 37 56 39 62 / 0 0 30 60 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 26 61 45 58 26 50 27 58 / 0 0 60 60 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 27 61 46 57 25 49 28 57 / 0 0 90 50 0 0 0 10 Camden 26 57 43 55 24 48 26 54 / 0 0 80 50 0 0 0 10 Crestview 26 62 45 65 29 54 29 62 / 0 0 30 60 10 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob