FXUS64 KMRX 040534
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1234 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Clear and cold weather settling in for the overnight period, with
temperatures widespread in the teens and twenties currently. 
Parts of the Plateau and Wise Virginia will see winds start to 
pick up by morning, potentially leading to a few instances of 
single digit wind chills, so bundle up warmly in the morning. No 
significant changes were made to the forecast. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry and cold tonight, still dry but warmer for Wednesday.

2. Winds will be increasing Wednesday afternoon, with some wind 
gusts to near 40 mph possible over the higher E TN mountains late 
Wednesday.

Discussion:

We start the period with the eastern CONUS upper trough axis to our 
east and surface high pressure over our area. Tonight will be mostly 
clear and quite cold with temperatures well below seasonal 
normals, dipping into upper teens to lower 20s in most valley 
locations. 

A low pressure system will be moving through the northern Great 
Lakes Region on Wednesday with a cold front diving southeast into 
the Ohio Valley by late Wednesday.  We will see some increase in 
clouds later in the day, but Wednesday will remain precipitation 
free. The increasing pressure gradient between the cold front and 
the surface high that will be shifting to our southeast will bring 
increasing southwesterly winds Wednesday afternoon, and some of the 
higher terrain of the E TN mountains may see wind gusts near 40 mph 
by late in the day. It will be warmer than recent days, but 
highs will still be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Key Messages:

1. Well below normal through at least the end of the week. Coldest 
morning lows will be Friday morning, with many readings in the 
teens. Warm-up to above normal next week.

2. Cold front with limited moisture will bring a chance of snow/rain 
showers Wednesday night followed by very cold air Thursday. Windy 
conditions Thursday will result in low wind chills.

3. Dry through the weekend, with a wet pattern potentially setting 
up for the Monday and Tuesday, but details are uncertain.

Discussion:

A cold front will bring a chance of precipitation to the region 
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Moisture will be limited 
ahead of the front, so QPF will be light. Through the night, 
temperatures aloft will be dropping rapidly, with a strong 40-50 
kt W-NW flow developing that will enhance snow amounts in higher 
elevations and keep some flurries in northern sections into 
Thursday afternoon. High temperatures on Thursday will occur in 
the early morning, as temperatures will fall through the 30s 
during the day behind the front. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are 
possible in the mountains, and may result in wind chills in the 
single digits and below zero late Thursday afternoon and Thursday 
night.

Friday will be dry and cold with highs in the 30s, but the weekend 
will have a warming trend, returning to the 50s on Sunday. 

A wet and warmer pattern develops for the start of next week as high 
pressure sets up over the western Atlantic along with a deep 
positively-tilted trough to the west, with a series of disturbances 
moving through a SW flow across the Southeast. Precip amounts and 
timing will depend on the details of these disturbances, which are 
uncertain this far out, but given the SW flow pattern aloft and open 
Gulf, we could be looking at multiple days of rain should a frontal 
boundary stall near the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions to continue, CIGs to lower to a 5kft deck by late
in the period, still dry. Winds to begin increasing by 16z-18z,
with a period of LLWS possible after 00z, though surface gusts at
KTYS and KTRI may be gusting to 25 knots or higher around the end
of the TAF period. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             51  38  45  23 /  10  40  10   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  48  34  42  18 /   0  40  10   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       48  32  40  18 /  10  40  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              44  30  37  14 /   0  50  20   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wellington
LONG TERM....DGS
AVIATION...Wellington