FXUS64 KOUN 040508 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1108 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1104 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 - Seasonable temperatures through the week with modest day to day variations. - Warming trend this weekend. - Medium rain chances across the southeast on Wednesday; low rain chances across the south on Friday night into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Winds have returned to southerly early this afternoon as surface high pressure settles to our east and slowly weakens. Southerly flow and increasing moisture will help keep temperatures warmer tonight than the past several nights, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s for most of the area. A surface trough will move into the area tomorrow, veering our flow to a more downsloped southwesterly direction and allowing high temperatures to reach the low to mid 60s within the trough axis from western north Texas into central Oklahoma. To the south of this axis, expect increased cloud cover and a chance for showers as a weak wave tracks across Texas, keeping temperatures a bit cooler across southern/southeast Oklahoma. Slightly cooler temperatures are also expected across northern Oklahoma where winds will turn more northerly behind the surface trough. Ware && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Surface ridging will build southward on Thursday ahead of high pressure centered across the northern plains. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air to the region, with highs dropping back into the 40s Thursday for much of central and northern Oklahoma, with low to mid 50s further south. Another widespread freeze is then anticipated for Thursday night into Friday morning. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 135 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Synoptic uncertainty increases Friday into the weekend as models struggle to handle the ejection of a cutoff low spinning over the southwest U.S., though nearly all ensemble solutions suggest a warming trend. Low rain chances (20-30%) will also return to southern parts of the forecast area over the weekend (centered mainly on Friday night). Another cool down is then forecast with our next front sometime early next week, though models are exhibiting typical levels of disagreement from this range regarding the timing and amplitude of this next trough. Day/Ware && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 There are still three primary issues for the aviation forecast this evening: 1) Low-level non-convective wind shear in north central Oklahoma overnight, 2) A cold front moving through the area with association wind shift, and 3) scattered showers and MVFR (and locally IFR) ceilings in southeast Oklahoma Wednesday. Southwesterly winds of 40-50 knots are expected around 2,000 feet AGL overnight in north central Oklahoma overnight which will create sufficient low-level non-convective wind shear to include in TAFs at KPNC and KSWO. Some models suggest that it could be close to LLWS threshold at KOKC and KOUN. Winds aloft are not expected to be quite as strong in north Texas or far southern Oklahoma. A cold front will move into northwestern Oklahoma near or just after sunrise on Wednesday and move southeast through the area during the day. Winds will veer to southwesterly and westerly before the cold front, with winds becoming northerly after the cold front moves through. Stratus with MVFR ceilings are expected to spread into southeastern Oklahoma (including KDUA) on Wednesday morning with some local IFR ceilings possible in the afternoon. Scattered showers may also move into southeastern Oklahoma in the late morning and afternoon. Winds will become light and clouds decrease Wednesday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 41 61 34 45 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 40 61 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 45 66 38 53 / 0 10 0 0 Gage OK 37 58 27 47 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 37 58 27 40 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 40 55 38 51 / 10 30 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...26