FXUS64 KSHV 040417 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1017 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1003 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 A quick update to adjust temps and pops overnight. Although clouds are moving into the region from the west, mostly clear skies continue to hang across our northern and eastern zones. This generally includes Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest/South-Central Arkansas, and Northeast Louisiana. With light winds in those locations, temps have dropped a little faster than originally anticipated. In fact, temps have dropped to near or slightly below freezing in these locations already. So, I made some adjustments to temp grids to account for this. Also, radar imagery across Texas is already detecting precip, in association with a developing sfc low across South Texas, as far north as the Houston area. Some of this precip will likely rotate into our far western East Texas counties by midnight, so decided to add POPs earlier to the overnight forecast and extend POPs more eastward and northward before daybreak to account for this earlier push. This now has our western Louisiana zones, including the Shreveport/Bossier metro area, with slight chance POPs before daybreak. There was a small concern that with the freezing temps and the faster push of precip, things could get interesting for a few hours in our northern and eastern zones. However, current thinking is that temps will warm to just above freezing right before daybreak in those areas as clouds and southerly winds proceed the precip. So, any precip that falls should remain all liquid. /20/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Our promised next chances of rainfall will be heralded by the arrival of returning cloud cover from the southwest this evening, overspreading the entirety of the region as daybreak approaches. Overnight low temperatures will consequently range considerably, from the middle 40s south and west to near freezing again north and east, where temperatures will still have most of the night to plummet before cloud cover arrives. The latest guidance puts the start time for showers at just before dawn in east Texas, spreading east towards I-49 through the morning, with the greatest confidence and coverage during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, but widespread organized convection is not expected at this time. Accumulations within the next 2 days look to total between half an inch to an inch and a half across the ArkLaTex. Guidance is split considerably on high temperatures Wednesday, ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. This discrepancy appears to result from the combination of warming trends influenced by southerly winds and inhibition of warming in the form of cloud cover and rain cooling. NBM looks to split the difference, and have elected to follow suit, aiming for highs ranging from the lower 50s north to lower 60s south, followed by lows in the middle 30s north to lower 50s south overnight into Thursday, while rainfall begins to come to an end from northwest to southeast. SP && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Thursday looks to be the brief hiatus between systems, while the arkLaTex finds itself under a small area of ridging sandwiched between a vast trough over the northeast and a deepening cutoff low over the Desert Southwest. Skies look to clear somewhat, especially north, while clouds remain along and south of I-20. Dry conditions look to prevail, with post-frontal air bringing temperatures back to highs in the 50 and lows at or slightly below freezing across the region, with middle 20s possible in southwest Arkansas. Upper level steering ahead of the aforementioned cutoff low will swing our next chances of rain into the region early Friday, beginning an unsettled and deeply soggy pattern to continue through the weekend and into early next week, with near-areawide PoPs persisting through the early hours Monday. As the low begins to open up into a longwave trough and push eastward, Monday looks to see gradual clearing quickly followed by another impulse of rainfall to close out this extended forecast period. The latest QPF values for the week ahead depict totals ranging from an inch and a half northwest to between 4 and 5 inches south and east into Louisiana. Temperatures will remain cool to close out this week with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows near freezing, with a warm up to highs in the 60s and 70s this weekend, and lows in the 40s and 50s, continuing into early next week. SP && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 946 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 For the 04/06Z TAF update, an incoming area of low pressure will swiftly move into the area from the west to instigate -RA and MVFR/IFR vis/cigs starting after 04/16Z through the end of the period. Southerly winds will prevail through the period. /16/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 146 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 38 57 47 56 / 20 90 80 0 MLU 33 57 46 53 / 0 80 100 0 DEQ 30 52 36 53 / 10 60 10 0 TXK 37 54 41 54 / 10 70 40 0 ELD 29 53 40 51 / 0 80 70 0 TYR 46 57 47 58 / 30 90 40 0 GGG 41 57 46 57 / 20 90 60 0 LFK 46 63 52 59 / 30 90 80 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...16