FXUS64 KTSA 040436
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 908 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

As of mid evening...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas was
positioned between surface high pressure over Southeastern U.S.
and a shortwave and its associated frontal boundary dropping 
southeast through the Plains. In response southerly winds remained
common for much of the CWA with breezy conditions north of
Interstate 40. Where winds remained southerly...temps continued to
be in the 40s...while light/easterly winds had allowed for temps
to fall into the 30s. At the same time...a mid level vort max was
making its way east northeastward across Southwest Texas. This 
was adding in high clouds beginning to stream into Southeast 
Oklahoma and some light radar echoes developing in Central Texas.

Overnight tonight...the shortwave and associated frontal boundary
will continue to drop southeast toward the CWA...while the mid 
level vort max moves eastward over Texas. Thus...breezy to gusty
at times southerly winds and increasing cloud cover is forecast to
continue overnight for most locations within the CWA. These
conditions will help to keep temperatures warmer tonight with lows
in the 30s/40s. Also...the greater moisture associated with the
vort max remains forecast to reach the Red River around/just after
12z Wednesday...which should keep rain chances below mentionable
criteria tonight and then increase after 12z for far Southeast
Oklahoma.

For the evening update...have added minor adjustments to sky cover
and min temps as well as the hourly temp/dewpoint trends to 
account for latest conditions and the mentioned above. The rest of
the forecast seems to be in good shape at this time. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Warmer temperatures are expected to continue on Wednesday even
with a cold front moving into the northern portions of the 
area as we move into Wednesday afternoon. There will be 
low to medium shower/storm chances ahead of the front across
southeast Oklahoma. 

Noticeably colder temperatures are anticipated on Thursday in 
the wake of the cold front. As we move into the weekend above 
normal temperatures return as high pressure shifts to the east 
and southerly low level winds return. The chances of showers 
return later in the weekend as an upper level low lifts out of 
the Southwest and into the Plains. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Latest aviation forecast remains on track with no major changes 
anticipated. Southerly winds will continue overnight, including 
LLWS shear, as strong southwesterly low level jet persists. 
Previously mentioned cold front is forecast to move into 
northeast Oklahoma Wednesday morning, pushing to near I-44 around
mid day. Any light precipitation will likely remain south of 
KMLC/KFSM, however increasing clouds are expected in association 
with approaching mid level disturbance Wednesday morning (around 
5-6 Kft), continuing through mid afternoon. VFR conditions are 
still expected at all TAF sites through the forecast period with 
light winds Wednesday evening. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   41  62  29  40 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   34  61  35  47 /   0  10   0   0 
MLC   40  62  34  46 /   0  10   0   0 
BVO   36  61  24  38 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   34  60  25  40 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   37  59  26  37 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO   37  63  32  42 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   37  59  25  35 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   39  64  32  43 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   37  54  38  52 /  10  50   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...12