FXUS65 KABQ 040534 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1034 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1026 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 - A low chance of rain showers and high terrain snow showers over the far southern parts of the forecast area Thursday and Friday. - A winter storm looks to impact the region early next week with impacts ranging from stronger winds and accumulating snow for some, and much colder temperatures areawide. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 218 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 Seasonable temperatures and mostly benign weather expected through the weekend with a few exceptions. A weak system over Arizona and northwest Mexico will bring low chances for rain and mountain snow to far southern areas Thursday through Saturday. A winter storm looks to dive down from the northwest early next week, increasing winds, provide the chance for accumulating snow across northern and some central areas, and much colder temperatures areawide. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 218 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 The bank of dense fog has burned off and low clouds across a large section of southeastern and east-central NM are continuing to thin in coverage this hour. Meanwhile, a weak but synoptic scale upper low is parked over southern CA bringing some mid to upper level moisture northeastward over far northern Mexico. Some this will move over southern and central NM tonight, bringing increased cloud cover, even after the aforementioned bank of low clouds clears out. Not all low clouds are forecast to clear out however, especially with a surface high to the east still bringing moist southerly return flow in southeastern NM and even into parts of the Rio Grande Valley. Forecast confidence is low, but there is still a low chance for some patchy fog to return tonight into Wednesday morning, over parts of the central highlands, the Estancia Valley and the Caprock. Coverage of any fog is forecast to be far less extensive than this past morning. Otherwise, drier northwesterly winds moving downslope off the Sangre de Cristo and Sandia Mtns will inhibit the return of fog in places like Edgewood, Santa Fe and Las Vegas. The upper low moves over AZ tonight into Wednesday. Weak diffluent flow aloft may be able to take advantage of the moist southerly return flow to produce a few stray showers or sprinkles over southern portions of the forecast area to include Catron, Socorro and Lincoln Counties. Highs stay within a few degrees of today's readings, warming up 4F to 6F over Chaves and Roosevelt Counties thanks to sunnier skies relative to today. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 218 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 A rex block will remain in place over the western U.S. through Saturday with upper ridging over the Pacific NW, Great Basin and northern and central Rockies and a generally dry upper low over Arizona and northwest Mexico. A majority of the forecast area will see dry and mostly clear conditions. However, far southern parts of the forecast area (southern Catron, Socorro, Lincoln and Chaves County will see the chance for some sprinkles and at most light shower activity due to being in the vicinity of the aformentioned upper low circulation. Any rain and mountain snow accumulation will be very minimal. Come late Saturday into Sunday, the upper low over northwest Mexico weakens, opens up, and gets picked up ahead of an upper level trough moving south from the Gulf of Alaska to the Pacific NW and northern Rockies. West winds pick up across the highlands and eastern plains on Sunday as stronger 700 mb winds move south over the region. Deterministic and ensemble cluster guidance seem to have a general good consensus tracking the upper trough south and east across the intermountain West late Sunday into Monday moving over New Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday. Given the origins of this system, it will be very cold in nature with 700 mb temperatures dropping as low as -10 to -15 deg C Monday night into Tuesday morning making snow the favored precipitation type. Snow accumulations look to favor north central and northeast areas Monday into Tuesday morning. Much colder temperatures and drier air looks to move in from the north late Monday into next Tuesday with highs come then well below average for mid December. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 Low VFR cigs have developed west of KSRR this evening. These low VFR cigs will likely spread a bit northward overnight toward KCQC, and gradually lower. Additional patchy low VFR/MVFR cigs will be possible south of I-40 and east of the Central Mountain Chain with the best chances from Fort Sumner eastward to K4MR and KCVS/KCVN. Patchy fog is possible as well. Overall, low clouds and fog should not be as widespread as last night. Otherwise, a northerly drainage wind is expected at KSAF with gusts up to 20kt possible toward sunrise. Any fog/low clouds will diminish by 18Z Wed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 218 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 No critical fire weather conditions forecast thru this week and this weekend. Weak flow aloft persists as an upper low slowly traverses the region. Widespread poor ventilation results with some moisture increasing recoveries and bringing some light sprinkles to southern and central NM each morning. Westerly winds increase by next Monday ahead of the next winter storm system that is favored to bring a sharp drop in temperatures and snow to northern and central NM early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 22 51 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 18 55 19 55 / 0 0 0 5 Cuba............................ 25 51 24 51 / 0 0 0 5 Gallup.......................... 16 53 18 54 / 0 5 10 5 El Morro........................ 26 52 28 52 / 0 5 10 10 Grants.......................... 18 53 19 52 / 0 0 5 5 Quemado......................... 24 54 24 54 / 0 10 10 20 Magdalena....................... 30 52 31 51 / 0 0 10 10 Datil........................... 27 52 28 51 / 0 5 10 10 Reserve......................... 23 58 22 61 / 5 10 10 30 Glenwood........................ 31 62 35 63 / 5 10 10 30 Chama........................... 20 49 21 49 / 0 0 0 5 Los Alamos...................... 32 51 31 48 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 30 52 28 51 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 23 48 26 48 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 20 42 21 42 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 14 46 13 45 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 20 51 20 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 24 51 22 51 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 25 55 24 56 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 30 52 29 50 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 28 54 27 52 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 37 56 37 56 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 33 57 32 56 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 29 57 29 58 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 32 56 32 56 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 26 56 25 57 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 31 58 29 58 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 25 57 24 57 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 31 57 29 58 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 27 57 26 57 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 34 56 33 53 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 32 56 31 56 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 33 56 32 59 / 0 0 5 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 30 52 28 51 / 0 0 5 5 Tijeras......................... 32 55 31 53 / 0 0 5 5 Edgewood........................ 28 55 25 51 / 0 0 0 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 22 56 21 53 / 0 0 0 5 Clines Corners.................. 30 51 25 47 / 0 0 0 5 Mountainair..................... 29 54 26 52 / 0 0 0 5 Gran Quivira.................... 31 55 27 54 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 37 59 35 57 / 0 5 5 20 Ruidoso......................... 33 55 28 50 / 0 5 5 30 Capulin......................... 28 50 24 46 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 23 55 21 51 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 21 57 19 51 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 26 54 22 48 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 35 57 29 51 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 29 57 26 47 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 31 61 27 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 33 59 28 51 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 33 60 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 38 59 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 38 61 30 54 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 36 61 29 53 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 41 63 40 55 / 0 0 0 20 Picacho......................... 36 61 34 52 / 0 0 0 20 Elk............................. 34 60 32 52 / 0 0 0 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...34