FXUS65 KGJT 040451 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 951 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The Gunnison Valley and, to a lesser extent, the upper Yampa will continue to run colder than the rest of the forecast area due to strong low-level inversions. - Expect mostly sunny skies and a gradual warming trend this week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 241 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 Another day, another rinse and repeat forecast. Model guidance continues to struggle with temperatures in snow- covered valleys producing temperatures upwards of 30 degrees warmer than real-time observational data. We continue to manually lower both daytime and nighttime temperatures but confidence in our temperature forecast remains low in these valleys, most notably the Gunnison Valley. Slight moderation is anticipated over the next 36 hours; however, cool conditions will persist. Elsewhere, daytime temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above normal tomorrow with light, terrain-driven winds and mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 241 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 Models continue to show good agreement with the Rex blocking pattern remaining over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest into Saturday keeping mostly clear skies across eastern Utah and Western Colorado going into the weekend. There is still good agreement among the models with a deep cold low over the Bearing Sea Wednesday finally ejecting into the Gulf of Alaska Friday and descending southeast through the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West Saturday into Sunday before tracking east out onto the Plains Monday into Tuesday, but there is significant dispersion among the ensemble members and the discriminate models on the timing of this system. Look for mid to high clouds to start moving into the region from the northwest late Saturday ahead of this system. Though this system will bring a return of colder air and snow showers to the higher terrain across the region, the only source of moisture is what can advect south with the system. Hence, at this time expected snow accumulations will be on the light side with generally a few inches possible across much of the region above about 6,000 ft and up to six to ten inches on the higher peaks across Colorado. Temperatures will be cold enough to even see snow flakes in the lower valleys, but no accumulation is expected at this time. Stay tuned for updates on this. Look for light snow showers developing over the northern mountains through the day Sunday especially along the Divide, increasing and spreading south into the central mountains overnight Sunday reaching the southern mountains by Monday morning. This system will push east Monday with showers diminishing through the afternoon and ending Monday night. Temperatures will generally run eight to ten degrees above normal Thursday through Saturday with the exception of the higher mountain valleys like Gunnison where there are currently strong inversions in place. Sunday will see temperatures drop about five degrees with the cloud cover restricting the diurnal heating. A cold front will move through with gusty northwest winds some time between Sunday afternoon and Monday dropping temperatures another five to eight degrees. This cold pool of air will likely hang around for a few days with a gradual warming Tuesday onward. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 942 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024 High clouds will move through the area throughout the forecast period. Winds will remain generally light and terrain driven. VFR conditions will prevail. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAA LONG TERM...DB AVIATION...TGJT