FXUS65 KRIW 040754
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1254 AM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and mild weather prevails with above normal temperatures through
  the remainder of the week.

- Precipitation chances may return for the weekend with the
  potential for some mountain snow and isolated snow showers
  across lower elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 AM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

The calendar may say December but temperatures across portions of 
the Cowboy State on Tuesday certainly did not feel like it. Some 
locations of note were Lander and Cody where highs neared record 
values. Lander reached 59 degrees coming within 2 degrees of tying 
the record high of 61 set back in 1941 and Cody hit 63 degrees. 
Temperatures across the CWA today are still expected to be 10 to 20 
degrees above normal but likely not to the degree they were on 
Tuesday. Highs are forecast to be in the mid 40s to low 50s east of 
the Divide and in the upper 30s west of the Divide. Lingering 
snowpack is leading to these cooler temperatures west of the Divide. 
The cooler temperatures may lead to some patchy fog developing this 
morning especially in portions of Star Valley, Jackson Hole, and 
Sweetwater County. Overall, mild and quiet conditions prevail 
through the remainder of the week.

Looking ahead towards the end of the week and weekend. A weak 
shortwave nears the region for the end of the week but models 
currently show the only impacts being some breezy winds. However, 
this weak disturbance looks to be the prelude to a better chance for 
widespread precipitation by the end of the weekend. The area of 
potent ridging that is keeping dry and mild conditions in place 
looks to gradually break down over the weekend. Long range models 
have continued to show a disturbance moving into the region by the 
end of the weekend. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding this 
system with little agreement among any of the major models. While 
there is not a general consensus among model, things are starting to 
trend towards a weaker, less organized system. Models seem to be 
trending towards a lower impact event with the best chance for snow 
being across the higher elevations. However, there is still time for 
things to shift one way or another but as of right now chances are 
not looking favorable for a widespread impactful snow event.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 920 PM MST Tue Dec 3 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected to persist at all TAF 
sites, though KJAC and maybe KRKS could drop to IFR conditions 
with fog Wednesday morning, just like Tuesday morning. The best 
chance seems to be at KJAC for the hours just before and after 
sunrise. Breezy and gusty west-southwest winds should continue 
at KCPR through sunset, then decrease overnight. High clouds 
are will filter over the area through the night, primarily 
across central and eastern WY. Breezy and gusty winds will pick
up again at KCPR around 15Z. After the fog burns off during 
mid- to late-morning Wednesday, western WY should see mostly 
clear skies with light winds.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for 
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Hattings