FXXX10 KWNP 040031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Dec 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 04-Dec 06 2024 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 04-Dec 06 2024

             Dec 04       Dec 05       Dec 06
00-03UT       1.33         1.67         2.33     
03-06UT       1.33         1.33         1.67     
06-09UT       1.33         1.33         2.00     
09-12UT       1.33         1.33         1.67     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         2.33     
15-18UT       1.67         1.33         2.33     
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         2.33     
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         2.67     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 04-Dec 06 2024

              Dec 04  Dec 05  Dec 06
S1 or greater    5%      5%      5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 04-Dec 06 2024

              Dec 04        Dec 05        Dec 06
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
all three days.