FXXX12 KWNP 040031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Dec 04 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar flare activity has been at low levels. There have been five
C-class flares with most of the activity coming from newly numbered
Region 3916 (S16E72, Cai/beta). Region 3906 (S16W76, Eko/beta-gamma) and
Region 3912 (S05E11, Eai/beta) both produced  C-class flares, the
largest being a C6.1 at 03/0544 UTC from Region 3906. There have been no
Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over
04-06 Dec.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
he greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels over 04-06 Dec.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the arrival of a weak CME early in the
period and have been enhanced since. Total magnetic field was between
12-14 nT early on and has remained around 10 nT for most of the period.
The Bz component varied between -7 and 12 nT. Solar wind speeds have
averaged around 420 km/s. The phi angle has been mostly positive (away
from the Sun) but has had three transitions into the negative for about
2-4 hours at a time.

.Forecast...
Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected to wane following the weak
CME and return to nominal levels 04-06 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was active during the first synoptic period
between 03/00-03 UTC due to a weak CME. The field has been quiet to
unsettled since.

.Forecast...
Mostly quiet levels are expected on 04-05 Dec. Quiet to unsettled
levels, with a slight chance for an isolated active period, are likely
on 06 Dec due to possible influences from a positive polarity CH HSS
(97).