FXZS60 NSTU 040119
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
219 PM SST Tue Dec 3 2024

.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite imageries show the active trough to the 
north-northwest with embedded thunderstorms and heavy downpours. 
Also shown on the satellite imageries are open cumuli clouds
streaming across the islands from the east. These line of cumulus
clouds can potential build over the islands and bring scattered 
to numerous showers, heavy at times, for tonight through at least
Wednesday. Although observations throughout the day reported
few clouds at times, atmospheric conditions remains unstable over
the area. The gentle to moderate easterlies will remain through at
least Wednesday. Easterlies weakening may allow the aforementioned
trough to the north to move over the area, bringing numerous to
widespread showers with possible thunderstorms on Wednesday. As
the trough lingers over the area, winds will become variable and
allow for convections to build over the islands. Therefore, expect
scattered to numerous showers thereafter. 

By the weekend into the new week, model data is showing a more 
active trough moving over the area. A mid-level low associated
will likely deepen the trough around this time frame. And
therefore, the trough is expected to bring possible flash 
flooding conditions for late Saturday through Monday. Gentle to
moderate easterlies will likely prevail for the rest of the long 
term forecast period. Will continue to monitor conditions as more
data becomes available.

There is a low probability of any tropical system to develp in the
area of responsibility (300 nm from Pago Pago) for the the next 7
days.


&&

.Marine...
Data from the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu'u show wave heights around 6
to 8 feet with long periods of 13 to 16 seconds. The PacIOOS data
from the King-Poloa buoy on the west also show wave heigts around
6 to 7 feet with long periods around 14 to 16 seconds. Long 
periods signal at enhanced surfs closer to the shoreline and 
strong rip currents. Hence, a high surf advisory was issued 
earlier for all shores through at least Wednesday. Additionally,
with the expected incoming trough tonight, thunderstorms embedded
will likely elevate seas and winds nearby. Model data however
shows a downward trend in seas after Wednesday through the rest 
of the forecast period. Therefore, the advisories for small crafts
and high surfs remains in effect.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory
High Surf Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen