NGUS84 KFWR 211509
HCMFWR

ATTN:  WFOs EWX...CRP

The Guadalupe River AHPS graphical products for this month are now 
available.  You should have also received the corresponding text 
products - FTWESGEWX and FTWESGCRP over AWIPS.

The conditional and HEFS simulations for the Guadalupe River 
indicate near normal chances of reaching flood stage for the next 
90 days upstream of the Blanco River confluence but well below 
normal from there and further downstream due to continued drought 
conditions. 

Climate Summary

According to the Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-Neutral conditions 
continue across the equatorial Pacific with overall near-average sea 
surface temperatures. A La Nina Watch remains in effect as model 
ensembles continue to predict a weak La Nina to develop during the 
October-December 2024 (57% chance) timeframe and persist through 
January-March 2025.  

In a typical La Nina winter, drier and warmer conditions set up for 
much of the southern CONUS, although individual weather events may 
bring periods of cooler and wetter conditions at times. The 30-Day 
and 90-day outlooks present with greater chances for above normal 
temperatures and below normal precipitation. 

To view this information in graphic form please visit: 
https://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfc_firo

The next issuance of this product will be on December 19, 2024

Sneeringer
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