NOUS74 KAMA 130915 ADMAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 315 AM CST WED FEB 13 2008 .DISCUSSION... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF FALLING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE ROCKIES. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD...A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO COME SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO HOLD NEARLY STEADY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY GET A CHANCE TO WARM UP BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THERE TOWARD NOON. SOME RAIN AND SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AS THE COOL AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS LIFTED. SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FROM THE NEWLY FORMED CLOSED LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO BRING ADDED LIFT. RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY EVENING AS THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTH. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE POSSIBLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW MUCH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG BEFORE IT STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. SO OUR CONFIDENCE IN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL IS NOT VERY HIGH. IF THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THEN THE PANHANDLES MAY ONLY SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. IF THE THE LOW TRACKS NEAR THE NAM SOLUTION...THEN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE SNOW. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE POPS AS IS FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST AND AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THURSDAY...MAYBE THE MODELS WILL SHINE A LITTLE MORE LIGHT ON THE SITUATION. AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PANHANDLES WILL BE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BRING SOME WEAK COLD FRONTS BY THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. THESE FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR OUR AREA. && .FIRE WEATHER... WINDS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 MILE AN HOUR RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MILES AN HOUR TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ALL OF THIS SPELLS A HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THE PANHANDLES TODAY. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RECOVER SOME THIS EVENING...BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 MILE AN HOUR RANGE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY. THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION PUB AND ABQ. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 69 37 45 18 32 / 0 0 20 40 30 BEAVER OK 65 31 39 19 37 / 0 0 20 30 20 BOISE CITY OK 65 31 37 17 34 / 0 0 30 40 20 BORGER TX 70 41 46 21 37 / 0 0 20 40 20 BOYS RANCH TX 70 37 48 21 37 / 0 0 20 40 30 CANYON TX 68 36 52 20 32 / 0 0 20 40 30 CLARENDON TX 67 39 56 21 35 / 0 0 10 40 30 DALHART TX 67 31 43 19 37 / 0 0 20 40 30 GUYMON OK 67 33 37 22 36 / 0 0 20 40 20 HEREFORD TX 67 37 55 21 31 / 0 0 20 40 30 LIPSCOMB TX 66 35 48 20 37 / 0 0 20 40 20 PAMPA TX 68 40 44 20 36 / 0 0 20 40 20 SHAMROCK TX 67 38 57 24 35 / 0 0 10 40 30 WELLINGTON TX 67 39 59 25 35 / 0 0 10 40 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON... COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY... HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB... MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS... SHERMAN...WHEELER. OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS. && $$ 14/15