NZUS92 KRAH 141901
LLLRAH
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-150701-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
301 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM Monday...

* Lingering clouds Wed, and a little light rain in the Coastal Plain in the morning
* Frost likely (light freeze possible) Thu and Fri mornings, especially over the Piedmont
* Temperatures moderate to near average by the weekend and early next week

The models are in good agreement that a vigorous shortwave trough now over swrn ON and srn MB will amplify across the srn Middle Atlantic and Carolinas, with standardized 500 mb height anomalies of 3-4 sigma, late Tue night through Wed. Strong DCVA/height falls and 850-500 mb Fgen will favor strong ascent, and saturation centered in the 850-600 mb layer, such that a good chance of rain over the Piedmont Tue night should pivot through the Coastal Plain Wed morning. While the deeper saturation will move through ern NC and offshore through the day, lingering moisture near to just above 850 mb and cyclonic flow through the mid-levels, will favor a broken layer of high-based stratocumulus and high temperatures a few degrees either side of 60 F on Wed.

Model spread/forecast uncertainty increases with how quickly subsequent closed cyclone development occurs near the srn Middle Atlantic coast late Wed-Wed night and then progresses away from the middle Atlantic coast through the end of the week. Slower/farther wwd solutions would impact how quickly skies clear and winds calm over the ern half of NC Wed night-Thu night, as deep layer ridging will otherwise be poised to overspread the region. The highest chance of clear and calm will be over the Piedmont, where temperatures in the lwr-mid 30s are likely Wed night and again Thu night. Dry conditions and gradually moderating temperatures will then result, as cP-soured surface high pressure modifies while remaining anchored over the middle Atlantic and OH Valley through the remainder of the forecast period.