NZUS93 KMPX 091956
LLLMPX
MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-100756-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
156 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

AFD

- Periods of showers and drizzle this afternoon through Sunday morning.

- Consistent near to slightly above normal temperatures (upper 40s, low 50s) for the next week.

- Next potential system arrives Wednesday.

Mesmerizing surface observations show the occluded low over central Nebraska, with a broad spiral of showers sprawling ahead of it. Not all of these radar returns are making it to the ground however, since they are battling a northeastward surging dry slot (evident on soundings and mid-level water vapor imagery). Nevertheless, some of the heavier showers have still been able to squeeze out a few hundredths this morning/afternoon so far. As the upper low shifts east tonight into tomorrow, the more saturated atmosphere on the backside is expected to advect into the region, increasing rainfall chances from west to east. Light rain showers should exit Minnesota by late morning, and western Wisconsin by mid-afternoon. Meanwhile, a secondary fropa will move in from the northwest during the day on Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures Monday through Tuesday morning next week.

Winds will increase out of the south Tuesday into Wednesday, ahead of an approaching trough from the west. This surge of warm(er), moist(er) air will set up our next chance for rain across the Upper MS Valley, with eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin having the best chance of seeing the strongest forcing overlap with the surging moisture plume. The trend of this wave being weaker and more progressive has stayed true, with most ensembles showing QPF in the range of 0.25 to 0.5 inches. With temperatures in the 40s & 50s, any wintry weather should stay well north of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

We’ll dry out to end the week, with highs staying in the 50s. Then we’ll be right back into another active period by next week as multiple waves could eject off a deep upper trough over the western CONUS.


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