WDIO31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (REMAL) WARNING NR
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.9N 88.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 103 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 24 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A BROAD CIRCULATION ALSO EVIDENT IN A 260944Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
SUPPORTIVE AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK AND PERSISTENCE

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 260738Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 260900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 31-32 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE STR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
OR INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING HIGH ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
VWS, AND DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW ARE OFFSET BY THE CONTINUED BROAD
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND INCREASING LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER,
IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE WIDESPREAD FROM
THE SYSTEM CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK MODELS AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF
TC 01B WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE BANGLADESH AND INDIA
BORDER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DEPICTIONS OF THE ORIENTATION OF THE
OVER LAND TRACK VARY DUE TO DIFFERING REPRESENTATIONS OF THE STEERING
RIDGE AND THE STORM STRUCTURE, BUT ALL MODELS CARRY THE STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BANGLADESH AFTER LANDFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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