WDPN32 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (MALIKSI)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.1N 111.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 162 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 13 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATING, BUT STILL RATHER DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, APPROACHING
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CHINA. NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE PAS SIX HOURS, WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICES STILL
CIRCLING AROUND ONE ANOTHER, WHILE THE LARGER CIRCULATION TRACKS
NORTHWARD. RECENT ANIMATED RADAR DATA PROVIDES THE BEST VIEW OF THE
LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND REVEALS AT LEAST TWO SPINNERS ROTATING
ABOUT A CENTROID, WITH WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL RAINBANDS STRETCHING
ACROSS NORTHERN HAINAN AND UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED IN THE
CENTROID OF THE MULTIPLE VORTICES, ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, IN LINE WITH THE HIGHER END DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM KNES AND RCTP, AND THE DMINT ESTIMATE OF 28
KNOTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YANGJIAN AND SHANGCHUAN DAO (NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC RESPECTIVELY) ARE IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE, SUPPORTING THE FACT THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM
(27-28C) WATERS, WHICH WHILE STILL WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT, HAVE STEADILY COOLED AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
COAST, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VWS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR
CENTERED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 311030Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 27-28 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: MARGINALLY DRIER AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN CHINESE
COAST.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (MALIKSI) WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHINESE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ELEVATED TERRAIN FEATURES NEAR THE ANTICIPATED LANDFALL
POINT WILL LEAD TO THE SLOWDOWN IN THE TRACK SPEED AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND, WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THE LLCC MAY GET
STUCK ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TAU 12. BUT IN GENERAL, THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE NORTH THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PHILIPPINES AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. BY THE END OF THE SHORT FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
TRACKING PARALLEL THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CHINA, TURNING ONTO A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 24. DUE TO THE COOLING SSTS ALONG THE
COAST, CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE LACK OF TIME
OVER WATER, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT POCKETS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT IN THE ENHANCED GRADIENT AS THE STR BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, EVEN IF IT STALLS ALONG
THE COAST, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY AND WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE THE VORTEX BY TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD, AND
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AFTER MOVING INLAND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS, GFS IN PARTICULAR, SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL
VORTEX WILL STALL ALONG THE COASTLINE AS IT RUNS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. BUT OVERALL, THE BULK OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE VORTEX WILL CONTINUE ON ITS MERRY WAY INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON RAPID WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL, THOUGH THE HWRF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHARP SPIKE UP TO NEAR 40 KNOTS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MEAN
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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