WTIO30 FMEE 221224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/11/20232024
1.A FILLING UP 11 (IALY)

2.A POSITION 2024/05/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 2.9 S / 42.7 E
(TWO    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 185

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/05/23 00 UTC: 2.0 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING

24H: 2024/05/23 12 UTC: 1.2 S / 44.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, IALY HAS COMPLETELY LOST ITS STRUCTURE, WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AND DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE CENTER.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DIRECTING LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE TRACK
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARDS, DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF AFRICA.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW UNFAVORABLE
(MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE CENTER) AND WILL CAUSE
THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS OF 30-25KT MAY STILL PERSIST FOR A LITTLE LONGER.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=