WTXS21 PGTW 191400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
055 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 2.5S 74.2E TO 3.0S 76.4E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 2.4S
74.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.6S 74.0E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.4S 74.5E, APPROXIMATELY 324 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
191108Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C) OFFSET BY HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (35-40KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 93S WILL GENERALLY TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201400Z.//
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