Expires:201902200300;Remove:201902200300;577399
WWPQ80 PGUM 190245
SPSPQ 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1245 PM ChST Tue Feb 19 2019


PMZ172-173-200300-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-
1245 PM ChST Tue Feb 19 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
POHNPEI NEAR 4N160E AND REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS MOVING WEST AROUND 10 MPH. STRONG TRADE WINDS NORTH AND NORTHEAST 
OF THE DISTURBANCE PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FROM CHUUK STATE
EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND NEARBY ISLANDS. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS UNEVENLY DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE CIRCULATION...FOUND MAINLY TO
THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS FOUND 
CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
IS FOUND IN THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE CENTER. FOR MORE 
INFORMATION ON THE TCFA BY THE JTWC...SEE BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPN21 PGTW.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK...
PASSING SOUTH OF CHUUK WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT IS THEN FORECAST
TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST THURSDAY. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 
SHOWERY WEATHER NOW OVER POHNPEI TO SPREAD INTO CHUUK STATE TONIGHT 
AND WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY AT
POHNPEI THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS CHUUK STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. IF THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS 
FASTER THAN EXPECTED...STRONGER WINDS AND LARGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TWO STATES. IN ADDITION...PROLONGED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF MUDSLIDES. ISLANDS FARTHER 
SOUTH...INCLUDING NUKUORO...LUKUNOR AND KAPINGAMARANGI COULD ALSO SEE
INCREASING WEST WINDS AND SWELL AS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSES BY
JUST NORTH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

LARGE TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS SHOULD BE 
POSTPONED UNTIL WELL AFTER THE CIRCULATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
REGION. FOR INFORMATION ON HAZARDOUS SURF...PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY UNDER WMO HEADER WHPQ40 PGUM. 

RESIDENTS IN CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
DISTURBANCE CLOSELY AND HEED THE INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY 
MANAGEMENT AND WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. CONDITIONS ACROSS KOSRAE 
STATE HAVE IMPROVED NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS MOVED FARTHER WEST. 
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND ADVISORIES... VISIT 
THE WFO GUAM WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/

$$

AYDLETT