Expires:201902190300;Remove:201902190300;526591 WWPQ80 PGUM 180232 SPSPQ SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1232 PM ChST Mon Feb 18 2019 PMZ172-173-174-190300- CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE- 1232 PM ChST Mon Feb 18 2019 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE... A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE NEAR 4N165E AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. STRONG TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN POHNPEI STATE...KOSRAE STATE... AND OVER MUCH OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND NEARBY ISLANDS. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER WITHIN STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE TCFA BY THE JTWC...SEE BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN21 PGTW. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THURSDAY. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SHOWERY WEATHER NEAR KOSRAE TO SPREAD OVER ALL OF POHNPEI STATE TONIGHT...AND CHUUK STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS FASTER THAN EXPECTED...STRONGER WINDS AND LARGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS CHUUK AND POHNPEI. ISLANDS FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING NUKUORO...LUKUNOR AND SAPWUAFIK COULD ALSO SEE INCREASING WEST WINDS AND SWELL AS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSES BY JUST NORTH IN THE COMING DAYS. LARGE TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION ACROSS CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL NEXT WEEK. FOR INFORMATION ON HAZARDOUS SURF...PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNDER WMO HEADER WHPQ40 PGUM. RESIDENTS IN CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE CLOSELY AND HEED THE INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE LATEST FORECAST AND ADVISORIES...VISIT THE WFO GUAM WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/ $$ AYDLETT